Dr. Jeff Ross, founder and managing partner of Vailshire Capital Management, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach a price of $475,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Speaking on the Simply Bitcoin YouTube channel, Ross stated that this forecast is based on his analysis of the past two years.
Despite concerns expressed by other market analysts, Ross believes that current economic conditions are creating favorable circumstances for a significant increase in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
While acknowledging the existence of those who believe that the world economy is on the verge of collapse, similar to what happened in 1929 or 1999, Ross dismissed these opinions. He argued that the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a new cycle rather than facing imminent disaster.
According to Ross, the services sector, a major driver of the American economy, continues to perform well, boosting the composite index and offsetting manufacturing weaknesses.
Ross’s optimism about Bitcoin’s price trajectory is supported by macroeconomic data and historical patterns. He pointed out that pullbacks of 20-30% are to be expected in a continuous bull market and should not discourage investors.
For instance, even if Bitcoin experiences a temporary setback and falls to $75,000 or $85,000, it would still be considered a healthy market correction if it reaches a target of $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Ross emphasized that these pullbacks are normal fluctuations in price and do not indicate the end of the bull market. He encouraged investors to maintain a long-term perspective while acknowledging the psychological challenges they face, such as panic during downturns and fear of missing out (FOMO) during price increases.
Another crucial factor determining Bitcoin’s expected expansion is its hashrate, which measures network computing capacity. Ross and the hosts of Simply Bitcoin discussed the impact of China’s mining restrictions in 2021, which initially led to a significant decline in hashrate and Bitcoin price.
However, the situation changed when miners relocated to more favorable countries, and the hashrate recovered. This resilience highlights the strength of Bitcoin’s decentralized network.
Ross also addressed differing opinions on Bitcoin’s price potential. While many analysts believe there is a limit of $200,000 for the current cycle, he argued that Bitcoin often defies conventional expectations. Based on historical trends, parabolic growth, which supports his $475,000 target, often follows a halving event, such as the one expected in 2024.
Global liquidity trends further bolster Ross’s optimistic stance. He noted that the Global M2 money supply, a key liquidity indicator, has been increasing since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Although recent gains in the U.S. dollar have temporarily slowed down this increase, Ross predicts that the value of the dollar will weaken. This situation would be advantageous for risk assets like Bitcoin and emerging markets.
Ross also highlighted forward-looking data, such as new business orders, which suggest a three- to six-month economic recovery. He also emphasized the role of fiscal spending in preventing a recession and driving economic growth.
While acknowledging challenges in regions like Europe and China, Ross emphasized that the United States remains the global engine of development. As the U.S. economy gains momentum, it could have a positive impact on international markets, fostering an environment conducive to the acceptance and appreciation of Bitcoin.
“Liquidity is key,” Ross stated, “and Bitcoin is the ultimate absorber of liquidity.” He argued that as banks resume lending and the money supply expands, more capital will flow into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.