As the U.S. Presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025, approaches, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has predicted a pessimistic outcome for cryptocurrency. In his latest essay, Hayes stated that crypto will face a “harrowing dump” around Donald Trump’s inauguration day.
### Crypto Revolution in the U.S. to Commence Slowly
Hayes, who is now managing a family office called Maelstrom, believes that changes in crypto policy under Trump’s administration will occur gradually. Many crypto investors expect Trump to quickly transform the U.S. political landscape. However, Hayes argues that there are no politically viable solutions for Trump to effect such rapid change.
“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has, at best, one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades,” Hayes wrote.
Despite this pessimistic forecast, Hayes remains confident in the long-term potential of the crypto market. He expressed confidence that the current crypto bull market will still experience a boom phase. However, Hayes claims that the crypto markets will initially see a significant dump around Trump’s inauguration day on January 20, 2025.
Hayes added that Maelstrom will strategically position itself, anticipating the opportunity to repurchase core positions at lower prices in the first quarter of 2025. He believes that many crypto holders will sell their tokens earlier in the year due to a lack of conviction.
“Knowing this, we are committed to admitting defeat if the bull market steamrolls through January 20th, licking our wounds, and getting back on the bull,” Hayes said.
He thus advised investors to buy more Bitcoin if such a dip occurs. Hayes also expressed that Trump has helped him recognize the structural deficiencies in the global order, and he credited Trump for showing him that owning Bitcoin and crypto is the best way to maximize profit.
### Bitcoin Continues Bullish Momentum
Interestingly, the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), continues to benefit from Trump’s victory in the U.S. November election. Bitcoin’s price has increased by over 50% since Trump’s win, rising from around $68,000 to a record high of $108,268. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $104,133, down 3.15% in the last 24 hours. However, the leading cryptocurrency is still up 5.29% over the past week and 14.5% over the past month.
Trump’s win has spurred anticipation for significant changes in crypto regulation. The former president has promised to do “something great with crypto,” including establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve.
The recent surge in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also contributed to the growing momentum of Bitcoin. Over the past week, spot BTC ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, have attracted a staggering $2.17 billion in net cash inflows, according to a CNF report.
Expectations are high that Bitcoin will continue to surge in the coming days. Many market analysts have set a target of $150,000 for BTC by the end of 2024.