Cardano ETF Odds Surge On Polymarket
According to the latest Polymarket data, the chance of Cardano’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting regulatory approval before 2025 has increased to 55%. That number is 45% higher than the previous estimates, showing a clear change in market sentiment about the Cardano ETF filings.
Cardano, known for its efficient consensus mechanism and academic approach, has usually trailed behind both Bitcoin and Ethereum in ETF talks. Even so, the latest changes in US regulatory rules for crypto ETFs are leading many to believe ADA-based investment products may soon become available to a broader audience.
Over the past few months, predictions about whether a Cardano ETF will go ahead have gone up and down. Some people believe it has a 30% chance while others think it will have around a 60% chance. Recently, the numbers have not changed much, as forecasts mostly remain above the middle part of the spectrum. Nonetheless, the latest jump from the previous probabilities to the latest 55% shows that both analysts and investors are feeling more positive about the market.
On Polymarket, traders can bet on whether an ETF for the Cardano token will be approved. The site now has “Yes” shares available for $0.70. This price rise shows that a lot of people think an ADA ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely. On the other hand, some investors are holding onto their “No” shares, which they are selling for $0.58.
If the Cardano ETF is cleared by the end of 2025, people with “Yes” shares would get $1.00, proving additional reasons why the market choice matters. The pricing difference between “Yes” and “No” shares reflects divergent investor expectations but also underscores growing confidence in regulatory acceptance.
The Political & Regulatory Scene
This concentration of activity seems to come from an increased interest by institutional investors. Several mentions have been made that some large asset management firms are checking Cardano to see if it is suitable for future ETFs. This comes as cryptocurrency-based financial products become more acceptable, mainly due to the progress made with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US.
For further context, the SEC has adopted a more crypto-friendly approach after the exit of Gary Gensler and the advent of pro-crypto Paul Atkins as the new Chairman. Atkins has vowed to draft clearer regulations for the crypto industry and has put a hold on enforcement actions. Hence, netizens believe that altcoin ETFs, such as Solana, XRP, and Cardano ETFs, could be approved owing to the change in the SEC’s stance after U.S. President Donald Trump took over the White House.