Ethereum (ETH) enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the approval of spot Ether ETF applications, which are expected to be granted on July 15. Revised S-1 forms are set to be submitted on July 8, with the final submission anticipated on July 12.
Gemini, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, believes that within the first six months of trading, Ether ETFs could attract net inflows of $5 billion.
Nate Geraci, the president of The ETF Store, has also predicted that the approval decision for Ethereum spot ETFs will be made in mid-July. He stated that Bloomberg’s forecast aligns with this timeline, with the revised S-1 expected to be submitted on July 8 and the final S-1 on July 12. This suggests that the approval is imminent.
Interestingly, this prediction coincides with an earlier statement by Jimmy Ragosa, the product manager at Consensys. Ragosa hinted that approval could come just a few days after Bitwise Asset Management submitted an amended S-1 document.
As previously reported, Ragosa mentioned that the updated document removed details regarding the fee structure and initial investment. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had emphasized the need to prioritize certain aspects, such as risk factors and regulatory statements, contact information, and the distribution plan. The deadline for submitting the updated documents was extended to July 8.
In addition to the amended documents, the SEC has engaged extensively with the Ethereum ETF applicants to address major concerns. The latest round of feedback mainly involved minor queries.
Once approved, the spot Ether ETFs are expected to experience significant growth. Gemini predicts that these ETFs could attract net inflows of $5 billion within the first six months. According to their research report, the total Asset Under Management (AUM) for ETH ETFs in the US could reach $13 billion-$15 billion during this period. However, this estimate assumes that the current Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is combined with the ETF flows.
Considering the comparable AUM in international ETF markets, strong on-chain dynamics, and distinguishing factors like the thriving stablecoin environment, there is a favorable risk-reward for an ETH catch-up trade in the coming months.
Gemini believes that a net inflow of less than $3 billion into spot Ether ETFs would be disappointing, considering that its Bitcoin counterpart recorded $15 billion in the first six months. They estimate that the expected $5 billion net inflow would be a third of Bitcoin’s numbers. An inflow of around 50% or $7.5 billion would be considered a significant upside surprise.
The report also suggests that if the Ether/Bitcoin ratio returns to the median value of the past three years, there could be a 20% surge to 0.067. Fascinatingly, a return to 0.087 would represent a 55% increase.
Steno Research, in agreement with this analysis, predicts that net inflows of $15-20 billion could enter the spot Ether ETFs within the first 12 months.
“We continue to forecast a net inflow between $15 billion and $20 billion in the first 12 months, even considering the outflow from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE),” the report states.
Steno believes that if the estimated spot Ether ETF inflows materialize, the Ether/Bitcoin ratio could strengthen to 0.065 later this year. With this influence, they predict that ETH could rise to $6,500 by the end of the year.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3,350, experiencing a 2.5% decline in the last 24 hours and a 1.4% decline in the last seven days.
