10x Research Warns of Potential 20% Decline as Bitcoin Continues to Struggle Below $60,000

A research firm has made a shocking prediction, forecasting a further 20% decline for Bitcoin. The firm cites the ongoing outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs as the main reason for this anticipated drop.
The research firm has linked the current bearish trend to a change in ETF buying behavior and the all-in mining cost of $53,000 to $55,000.
Bitcoin’s surprising downward spiral continues, with its price dropping below $60,000 in an 8% weekly decline and a 30% monthly decline.
Unfortunately for active investors, the asset is expected to continue its downward trend as crypto research firm 10x Research identifies underlying factors that could lead to a 20% drop to below $50,000. It’s worth noting that 10x Research accurately predicted the low point for Bitcoin in March 2022 and the surge to $63,160 by March 2024. They also correctly predicted the price of $45,000 by December 25, 2023, and identified Bitcoin miners as a key investment for 2024.
The research firm recently called for a Bitcoin rally in January 2024, followed by a correction near the top in March 2024. With most of their predictions coming true, lead analyst Markus Thielen has emphasized the impact and different risk management approaches of institutional investors and retail traders.
According to the research firm, their ability to accurately predict Bitcoin’s behavior stems from their deep understanding of historical trends and driving forces within the crypto industry. They believe this has been the primary determinant of the asset’s performance since its inception. Looking back in time, the research firm attributed the August 2023 correction to the rising 10-year treasury bond yield and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Interestingly, this unexpected downturn in Bitcoin’s price was followed by a recovery by the end of the year.
The bearish extension of Bitcoin’s price is believed to have been triggered by a change in ETF buying behavior, according to 10x Research. This is evident in the $162 million outflows from various ETFs on March 30, 2024, marking the sixth consecutive day of outflows. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a withdrawal of $93.2277 million, extending its historical net outflow to $17.303 million. Fidelity’s FBTC also saw a withdrawal of $35.28 million during this period, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded an outflow of $34.31 million. Interestingly, only Ark’s ETF (ARKB) saw a net inflow. Although this slump is expected to be temporary, it has had a significant impact on market behavior and has led many investors to exit their positions.
Adding to the concern, the all-in mining cost of $53,000 to $55,000 could worsen the situation by triggering sales to protect mining operations. According to the research firm, this correction could extend to 25% to 29%. Additionally, there is a possibility of a consolidation period rather than a sharp bullish reversal.
Following this report, Nic Puckrin, the co-founder and CEO of the crypto information portal Coin Bureau, informed his followers that it would be more profitable to sell Bitcoins in May rather than in September. Interestingly, this coincides with a K33 report that found buying Bitcoin in October and selling in April has generated a cumulative return of 1,449%. However, buying in May and selling in September has resulted in a negative return of -29%.
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