Coinbase, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, believes that the impact of macroeconomic factors will play a significant role in shaping the market sentiment, in addition to the effects of the Bitcoin halving. They argue that previous post-halving events have always resulted in a bullish run due to industry-based factors, but this time, external drivers will have a greater influence on the market.
Analyst David Han, in a research report, emphasized the importance of these external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, interest rates, reflationary policies, and national debts, in shaping the crypto markets. These factors, which are independent of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, are expected to have a considerable impact on market sentiment. For example, the recent retaliatory strikes by Israel on Iran caused the price of Bitcoin to dip below $60,000 as investors sold off their holdings and turned to other assets like gold, silver, and bonds.
The report also highlights the correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin continues to be a key anchor in the crypto space. Despite the emergence of various digital assets, Bitcoin remains a leader and firmly establishes itself as a macro asset.
While historical data suggests that previous halving events have often led to bull markets, Coinbase suggests that additional catalysts within the crypto space have played a crucial role in these uptrends. The halving event, which happens every four years, is expected to drive market movements in the coming days.
However, just before the halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin experienced a dip and continued on a downward trajectory. It reached a low of around $63,036 and remained in the $63,000 threshold for over twelve hours after the halving. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $63,945.53, showing that the full impact of the halving has not yet been priced in.
Coinbase also notes the evolving perception of Bitcoin among investors. Many now view it as a “digital gold” and a hedge against geopolitical risks. This shift in outlook has created two distinct groups of investors: those who see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and those who use it as a macroeconomic hedge.
This report echoes the sentiments expressed by Goldman Sachs, who also cautioned against drawing direct comparisons with previous market cycles and overestimating the impact of halving events. Analysts predict that given the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions, the cryptocurrency market is likely to follow a different path after the halving.