Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered from critical downward levels, its price is still below the $100,000 threshold. The price of Bitcoin has been in a contraction phase since the coin’s second attempt to break above $105,000 in late January. Considering Bitcoin’s latest recovery attempt, traders and investors are now watching out for the coin’s next big move.
**Glassnode on Bitcoin’s Performance**
According to a Glassnode report, Bitcoin shows weakening capital inflows and declining derivatives activity. This coincides with short-term holder accumulation resembling challenging market conditions. Now trading within a relatively stable range, Bitcoin has been consolidated at around $95,000 for several weeks. At press time, the price of BTC was $97,443, demonstrating a 1.12% increase in the last 24 hours.
The report from Glassnode showed a decline in capital inflows within the perpetual futures market. This sharply dropped Bitcoin’s perpetual Open Interest (OI), reflecting a shift toward more bearish sentiment. Within the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s OI plummeted by 11.1%, indicating an unwinding of leveraged positions. The key level to watch is the Short-Term Holder (STH) trend, which has a cost basis of around $92,500. In the past, the STH holdings level was a pivot point between local-scale bull and bear phases. At this point, buyers see unrealized losses, which could lead to more downside as panic sets in. According to the report, the market is where price action is prime for uncoiling. This is deduced from similarities between past STH supply changes and current trends. Thus, Bitcoin could establish a new range above all-time highs if demand remains strong. On the contrary, a lack of sustained buying pressure could lead to a deeper distribution-driven correction. Bitcoin could retest its January 30 high of $106,457 if it breaks above the upper boundary of the consolidating range of $100,000. Moreover, technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 47. It approaches its neutral level of 50 and points upwards, indicating slight strength in momentum.
**Headwinds Challenging Bitcoin’s Uptrend**
QCP’s Wednesday reports highlighted that inflation fears remain a top global concern amid escalating tariff tensions. As the report emphasized, only a 10% tariff on select Chinese goods is currently in place. As for Mexico and Canada, the proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico could be dismissed after the initial suspension if a consensus is reached. The ongoing market uncertainties have contributed to fueling a negative outlook for Bitcoin. This week’s news of FTX repayments and the memecoin LIBRA scandal also contributed to Bitcoin’s weakness. In a previous article, we discussed that FTX has started repaying creditors with an initial payout of $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, Argentina’s latest meme coin frenzy, LIBRA, also leaves thousands of investors with substantial losses, as CNF mentioned earlier. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains resilient around the $97,000 level, suggesting potential upsides in the future. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently forecasted that BTC could hit $250,000 in the current cycle.