Bitcoin (BTC) officially reached a new milestone in January, closing the month above $100,000 for the first time in history. Despite some turbulence in traditional markets, BTC ended the month at $102,400, as reported by TradingView. This follows December’s closing price of $93,439, with a brief peak at $106,000 on December 17, the highest recorded price in 2024.
However, the drop in Bitcoin’s price at the end of the month was largely influenced by risk-off sentiment in traditional markets. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, starting from February 1, caused a disturbance in financial markets. The Canadian dollar depreciated by 0.6%, while the USD/CAD exchange rate rose to 1.4480.
Data from Trading Economics shows that in 2023, the U.S. imported $429.6 billion in goods from Canada and $480 billion from Mexico, making Mexico the largest trading partner in terms of imports. Under the new tariff policies, Canadian oil will face a 10% tax, and additional oil and gas tariffs are expected in mid-February.
These tariff changes could introduce economic uncertainty, affecting both traditional and digital asset markets. Bitcoin, often considered as a hedge against inflation, may experience increased volatility as investors react to these shifts. Analysts also note the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, suggesting that it now behaves more like a risk-on asset, rising and falling in line with traditional markets. This trend was evident last fall when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a decline in Bitcoin’s price and significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Can Bitcoin maintain its bullish trend in February? Historically, February has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with an average return of 14.4%, according to data from CoinGlass. If this trend continues, BTC could potentially close the month around $117,000. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted fresh capital inflows, further driving up BTC prices in 2024 after receiving approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Crypto trader Rekt Capital weighed in on the matter, informing his 533k followers on Twitter that Bitcoin is currently in week 14 of its price discovery phase, a critical stage in the bull market that began when BTC surpassed its previous all-time high late last year. He believes that the bull run still has room to grow, stating, “It is still relatively early on in the BTC Parabolic Phase of this cycle. Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days. Bitcoin is on Day 82 of its Parabolic Phase.”
In a separate post, Rekt pointed out that 8 out of the last 12 Februarys since 2013 have delivered double-digit percentage gains, further reinforcing February’s reputation as a strong month for BTC. Post-halving years have been particularly bullish, with Bitcoin surging 61% in 2013, 23% in 2017, and 36% in 2021. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $102,161, reflecting a 2.44% decline for the day.
However, its trading volume has surged by 13.22%, reaching $43 billion within the last 24 hours. With the combination of historical trends, institutional accumulation, and positive market sentiment, analysts believe Bitcoin could target new all-time highs in February.