Originally published by Cointelegraph on November 7, 2026, at 17:10:35 UTC+8.
Polymarket said it was investigating trades flagged ahead of public releases of New York Times/Siena political polls, according to a New York Times report cited by Cointelegraph. Whether the trader had access to inside information remained unclear.
Researchers flag timing of election bets
Vanderbilt University researchers identified suspicious prediction-market bets placed shortly before two recent Times/Siena polls became public. In one instance, a Polymarket user wagered almost $200,000 on October 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. A poll released an hour later showed Ricketts leading.
The Times reported on Friday that the user won more than $77,000 and also placed similarly large bets on other markets, including Kalshi.
“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He said it “requires further investigation.”
Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined to comment. The report did not establish that the trader had used nonpublic information.
Separate US case involved alleged use of military information
Cointelegraph also referenced its April reporting on a separate case in which a US Army soldier was charged after allegedly making more than $400,000 through prediction-market bets using nonpublic information about a US operation involving then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
According to a Department of Justice statement, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January.
The DOJ alleged that Van Dyke used that information to buy “yes” shares in Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” Those allegations concern a separate case, not the election-poll trades under investigation by Polymarket.